7:00am/2:00am: Well, looks like things are settled. 8 seats left to be called; five of them safely Conservative. It’s technically a hung parliament, but Conservatives plus 10 unionists from Northern Ireland make up an effective majority of 326 with the seats they have now plus those five safe Conservative contests left to call. Could rise to an effective majority of 329 to 321 for all others less – is it 6 Sinn Fein? haven’t checked. So 326-318 or 329-315, somewhere in that range. Of course, my call in CounterPunch was 3.0% Conservative win with a strict majority, not an effective one. On Twitter, I moved that to a 2.8% call. Final looks set for a 2.3% Conservative win, just short of strict majority. I’d rather have been more wrong, with Labour winning more. Early on, it seemed Tories might even dive under 300 seats. I do think this means the clock strikes midnight on Corbyn’s magical run. For now. He won’t be Prime Minister. He’ll stay on as Labour leader, much to the chagrin of New Labour types.
I’ll review how I did over all with my seat-by-seat calls. But feels like a pretty good prognostication with how much flux there was in this election and how many other pollsters and aggregators did far far worse.
Congratulations to Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, to Caroline Lucas for holding down the Green Party seat, and a bit begrudgingly to Liberal Democrats who won several seats from Conservatives to help hold them under strict majority status. I never fully evaluated their chances in their target seats. They obviously performed much better than I projected. I also should have completely re-evaluated every seat in Scotland. Only so much time, I guess. Greens were, in many ways, the real heroes of the campaign. Selfless abandon to try to keep May from continuing on as PM.
So long from this ‘murican, living in Canada.
5:13am/12:13am: Very long time between updates. I’ve been crunching numbers on calling a hung parliament for good. I count just 19 seats left that Labour is defending against Conservatives. In 10 of the 19 they are ahead in my projection by 7% or more. I think they have lost exactly one of those tonight. Meanwhile, Conservatives are down 14 on the night. Going to wait a bit longer on the call, however. 325 isn’t really a hung parliament with Sinn Fein sitting out (and gaining seats tonight). I think we need to see Conservatives with guaranteed losses of at least 11. Almost there. Not yet.
3:33am/10:33pm: They’re coming in fast and furious now. Conservatives have lost a net five seats in last half hour per Guardian count, seriously endangering their majority (max they can lose and maintain strict majority is …. 5 – practically it is about 12-15 with Sinn Fein not sitting and possible alliances with very small parties). The big question now is how many more gains Conservatives can whip up in Scotland and West Midlands versus Labour gains across the North (including a few more in Scotland?) and in the East of England and South West. Race is on.
3:15am/10:15pm Immediately someone tweeted at me with SkyNews’ projections of 308-328 potential for Tories. I hadn’t seen that first. Our ranges are very similar. All depends on what happens in the four regions plus Scotland listed in previous update.
3:08am/10:08pm: Short story. Most places, especially Scotland, it looks like Conservatives might hang out to narrow majority. Big exceptions: North West, East of England, Yorkshire and Humberside, South West. These regions could still mean hung parliament. Tories could go anywhere from 295-325 in my view at this point.
2:59am/9:59pm: Very long 15 minutes. Sorry. Putting kiddo to bed; tried to get 10,000 foot view as things coming in fast and furious. After well-along way, realized Guardian already has it. This is precisely why I projected a narrow Conservative majority. Offsetting losses elsewhere with gains from SNP in Scotland. So far, Cons net zero. That means a majority. BUT … the grand news is out of the North. In all except one seat (see below), Labour are outperforming in the North West, which is where they could pick up several seats I dared not dream. Even more importantly WOW! the huge win in Y&H in the Shipley constituency. This wasn’t on my radar. Wasn’t on YouGov’s radar. They had a 9.5% Conservative win there. And I thought YouGov was overestimating *Labour* in Y&H significantly. Labour could now run the table in the North almost entirely and this could make Jeremy Corbyn PM.
2:20am/9:20pm: And now for the bad news: while Labour is doing uniformly well in London and the North East (Stockton South looks like it is the latest pick-up here), there are some important mixed results elsewhere. 1) Carlisle in the North West came in bad for Labour and my model. I had it as a Toss-up with Lab trailing Con by 2.5%. Conservatives won by 6.1%. 2) While the result in Vale of Clwyd (Wales) looked very good for Labour – a 6.1% win where I had them trailing 1% in a Toss-up – Plaid Cymru held Carmarthen East & Dinefwr with a 9.5% win where I had it as a just a 2% Plaid lead. With the Vale of Clwyd result, looked like Labour might pick up 1/2 dozen seat in Wales. Better Plaid than Con by far! But hoping Vale of Clwyd not a fluke/local result only. 3) Paisley and Renfrewshire South result looked very good for SNP and especially Labour (outperforming YouGov by 3.6%) but Perth and North Perthshire see just a 36 vote SNP lead over Conservatives. Will be very bad if this is a Conservative pick-up in terms of reaching a hung parliament. Finally, some amazingly good news, however, in the next update in about 15 mins.
2:07am/9:07pm: Congratulations Marsha de Cordova! Confirming over an hour of rumour, she’s overcome an 8,000 Conservative majority from 2015 and taken Battersea. By 4.4%. I had it at a Toss-up with a 2% Labour lead. I had been awaiting this result to update for quite some time. Labour doing even better than I projected all over London. Also, just in, my call for Leeds North West of a Toss-up, lean Labour was correct. I had it at 2.8% for Labour. Final call? Waiting on it from @BritainElects while I look at bad news elsewhere. See next update.
1:34am/8:34pm: Conservatives have conceded Battersea. Hooray! Labour’s first pick-up of the evening. On the other hand, I was hoping to be wrong in South Swindon. I projected a 4.0% Conservative hold. 4.8% Conservative hold is the result. I don’t want to be right. I want YouGov and the Exit Poll to be right. We may be heading for a narrow Conservative majority.
1:03am/8:03pm YouGov, absolutely nailing it. Also, Battersea (London, likely Lab pick-up) any moment, it seems.
12:57am/7:57pm: Hooray! First of the marginals I projected now has a result. Darlington! North East region. Very pleased with how my model did. Projection: 8.5% Lab hold (other regularly predicted Con pick-up). Actual result? 7.3% Labour win.
12:51am/7:51pm: By the same token as our 2nd last update, the results in the Midlands compared to YouGov projections is interesting. The Tories have overperformed in the West Midlands seat (Nuneaton) by about 8% and Labour has overperformed by about 7% in Kettering. Lots of chances for Conservative gains in West Midlands if they do better than national average in that region. Seven seats well within reach, another six by stretch. By contrast, just a couple of seats in East Midlands that I am thinking Labour might pick-up: Broxtowe and Northampton North.
12:42am/7:42pm: There wasn’t a ton of herding among pollsters this go round in the UK. But two significant instance stand out. YouGov and Ipsos MORI in their final polls went significantly back toward the pro-Tory average when they had results that would have justified calling the election as it seems to be turning out.
12:39am/7:39pm Pretty significant result for Labour in their first loss: North Swindon. This is the South West region and YouGov had predicted a 17% loss for Labour. The actual result was just a 15% loss. I was convinced that YouGov was overprojecting Labour in the South West enough that *after* averaging their projection with Ashcrofts more favourable Tory projection, I still knocked another point and a half off Labour for the region as a whole, adding it to Conservative tallies. Could be a bunch of pick-ups for Labour their if Labour overperformance in the region is uniform. Seats in their view now include Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Bristol North West, South Swindon, Stroud, and, in a real stretch, Plymouth Moor View. Conservatives could also lose a seat to the independent candidate in Devon East in this region. Are there other vulnerable Tory seats here?
12:21am/7:21pm If the intel @BritainElects on Twitter dot com is getting is correct, Labour could see important gains in Scotland and Wales from the nationalists parties. This could make Tory hopes of holding onto a slim majority completely unachievable.
12:07a.m./7:07pm: Turnout looks like it may far outstrip 2015 (great for Labour!).
11:55/6:55 Bury North and Bury South in the North West will be a huge test for all models. Their results are expected in about two hours at 2am BST. I have them down as a Toss-Up (1pt Labour lead for a steal) for Bury North and a Labour hold with a 5.2% lead for Bury South. See all my final projections for marginal seats here.
11:48/6:48pm Sunderland Central now in. 3-0 Labour as expected now. Here’s when we can start to expect other key seats to come in, my strong interests in yellow. The Sunderland Central results again outperform YouGov expectation for Labour there.
11:24/6:24pm Around midnight, we should get a very important result from Berwick-upon-Tweed (North East region). Conservatives are expected to win big per YouGov’s model, but we’ll also know how Liberal Democratic vote share is holding up. YouGov projection:
11:18/6:18pm A 30% win (as opposed to Electoral Calculus – EC call of 32%) for Labour in Houghton and Sunderland South. Bigger UKIP vote for Cons to pick-up than in Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central, and they did. Still in these 1st two seats, Labour is outperforming both the exit poll projections and YouGov. YouGov had a 27% win in Houghton and Sunderland South (5% better for Labour in actual results) and a 38% win tapped for Labour in Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central (a 2% improvement in actual results).
11:02/6:02pm And the first results are …. in! Lab hold in Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central, as expected. Houghton and Sunderland South (North East region) were expected first, but with turnout up 5% to 61% from 2015, there has been some extra time to count. For context, Electoral Calculus which had projected an overall Tory win by 9% correspondingly expected a Labour win by 32% for Houghton and Sunderland Central and same for Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central. Actual results? 40% win for Labour.
10:44/5:44pm 1st reporting expected imminently from Houghton and Sunderland South. Looks per exits like Stockton South and Broxtowe vulnerable to Labour pick-ups. My projection had Cons leading in Stockton South by 6pts and Broxtowe by 3.5% (the latter just a tick outside Toss-up status). Broxtowe historically reports about 4am (11pm eastern) and Stockton South a bit earlier at 3:30pm.
10:28/5:28pm I had 48 seats too close to call (under 3.0% projected gap for winner in 2-way competitive races, under 3.5% in 3-way or more). According to this tweet, the Exit Poll suggests as many as 76 seats too close to call. Will be very long night if so. I’ll be your guide, where possible to where to look next and what results mean for the big picture.
10:22/5:22pm Exit poll results in Scotland suggest big Labour and big Tory pick-ups with SNP down 22 seats. This could well determine whether Parliament is actually hung.
10:20/5:20pm 1st results will come from Houghton and Sunderland South, which came in at 10:48pm in 2015. Strong Labour hold expected. Will compare results to what was expected by Electoral Calculus.
10:15/5:15pm Check here for when actual results by parliamentary constituency are expected to start trickling in. I’ll be paying attention to these seats first and foremost.
Battersea is the first big result and should be a Labour pick-up from the Tories if the Exit Poll is accurate. That result is 2 hours and 45 minutes or so away, however.
10:09 (BST)/5:09 (EST)pm: The exit poll is out. Looks great for Corbyn and Labour. A hung parliament predicted. http://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-theresa-may-could-fall-short-of-commons-majority-10909060
A word of caution: enthusiastic young voters may have skewed exit polls badly in the Democratic primary in the U.S. British exit polls have a long history of being more accurate than US exit polls of late. It could be a very long night.
I intend to begin postings just before the exit poll drops at 10p.m. on Thursday, June 8th.