Bernie Sanders Could Win Texas and Send Camp Clinton Into Panic Mode

Still shaking out the fright of their worst night terror, yes! Bernie Sanders won the hispanic vote in Nevada, the #ImWithHer crowd is putting the bravest face they possibly can on what should be a sobering new poll: Sanders down just 10 in the Longhorn State.

The crosstabs from the poll mean it may include almost no Latino millennials, the group that carried Sanders to victory with hispanics as a whole on Saturday. This gives Clinton partisans some temporary glee. See! we are winning Latinos there by 23 points! Yes, exactly what you’d expect from a poll that can’t include anything like a representative sample of Latina and Latino likely voters under 35. Clinton has the (momentary?) support of older Latinos by almost precisely the number reflected in the polls, but millennials, who make up nearly half of eligible Latino voters, may go for Sanders, if this were possible, in even greater numbers than their white counterparts.

What to do?

Well, for one thing, the Sanders camp should do the math (we might only be down by 6 or 8 points in Texas!) and loosen the purse strings on their miserly Texas operation. Pronto! Clinton is outspending Sanders 20-1 in advertising dollars there. If this thing is a dead heat nationally, Nate Silver suggests that Clinton should still be winning Texas by twenty points. There are 222 pledged delegates available next Tuesday. If Sanders wins even 100, he has to be considered the victor for Super Tuesday as a whole. And he’s in it to win it all the way to the Golden State on June 7.

Update: A new poll from Emerson this morning shows Clinton +16 in Texas. 7.5% of those interviewed are Latina/o. Exactly one 18-29 year old Democratic primary voter was queried. Hispanics make up 27% of eligible voters in Texas and 32.3% of those are 18-29 years old.


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