Wisconsin Sanders +10.6%

I sincerely thought I’d be picking Sanders much higher here. He’s higher in my Facebook Primary (USPD Adjusted) than he was in Minnesota or New Hampshire. I expected to be forecasting between a 19 and 35 point spread for Sanders.

But I’m not picking against a clustered bevy of polls with which I can essentially find little wrong. Even the Loras Poll has a sampling of, going from memory, 42% for 18-44-year-olds. Most of them clearly have a good urban-suburban-rural spread. I’ve used the Facebook Primary data still, however, by topping the Marquette poll to the max with its margin of error.

Sanders +10.6.

It’s hard for me to see which counties (with more than 2000 votes) Clinton could win outside Milwaukee. Some are projecting even that will be close. Maybe Racine. It’s 12% African American. A few others are possible given Facebook Primary data plus how counties voted in 2008, but just doesn’t look likely.

I will not be at all surprised if it is much much higher. If Sanders loses or even wins by just a point or two, it’s hard to see his path forward. I’ve essentially worked out a path to victory if he is plus 10 in Wisconsin, but it’s still fairly difficult to see him surviving April 26 if he can only do 55-45 in Wisconsin. Will publish it after we see what happens Tuesday.

Correction: an earlier version of this post incorrectly said “Maybe Dane” instead of Racine. I quite obviously didn’t seriously suggest Madison might go Clinton.


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