I sincerely thought I’d be picking Sanders much higher here. He’s higher in my Facebook Primary (USPD Adjusted) than he was in Minnesota or New Hampshire. I expected to be forecasting between a 19 and 35 point spread for Sanders.
But I’m not picking against a clustered bevy of polls with which I can essentially find little wrong. Even the Loras Poll has a sampling of, going from memory, 42% for 18-44-year-olds. Most of them clearly have a good urban-suburban-rural spread. I’ve used the Facebook Primary data still, however, by topping the Marquette poll to the max with its margin of error.
It’s hard for me to see which counties (with more than 2000 votes) Clinton could win outside Milwaukee. Some are projecting even that will be close. Maybe Racine. It’s 12% African American. A few others are possible given Facebook Primary data plus how counties voted in 2008, but just doesn’t look likely.
I will not be at all surprised if it is much much higher. If Sanders loses or even wins by just a point or two, it’s hard to see his path forward. I’ve essentially worked out a path to victory if he is plus 10 in Wisconsin, but it’s still fairly difficult to see him surviving April 26 if he can only do 55-45 in Wisconsin. Will publish it after we see what happens Tuesday.
Correction: an earlier version of this post incorrectly said “Maybe Dane” instead of Racine. I quite obviously didn’t seriously suggest Madison might go Clinton.