Teaser: Early Tableaux in New York

Orange = Trump; Green = Clinton; Purple = Sanders Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/facebook-primary/

Orange = Trump; Green = Clinton; Purple = Sanders Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/facebook-primary/

FiveThirtyEight’s data geeks have promised to update the Facebook Primary sometime before New York’s primary on April 19. It has been static since the leap day in February. I’m furiously copying down data for comparison and am also preparing a piece by the title here for early next week. It will look at five regions in New York: Western Upstate (Buffalo and surroundings), Central Upstate, Eastern Upstate, the Lower Hudson Valley, and NYC and surroundings. Over the course of next week I’ll be preparing for my New York forecast next Sunday or the Monday before the election. Early prediction: way too close to call. Clinton by 10 or 12 in New York City and surroundings, Sanders by 20 – 30 Upstate. 50 – 50 overall. Getting a hold on likely voter and turnout outcomes region by region will be king.

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