County by County Data and My Call for the Democratic #NYPrimary

Below is the chart I’ve used as part of my New York projection. It includes per capita income data per county, Facebook Primary data (not adjusted to USPD here) from February 29 and as updated, the number of registered Democrats per county along with how many voted in 2008 for Obama versus Clinton, and racialized data from the U.S. Census by county.

FiveThirtyEight’s Facebook Primary was updated today (April 18). My Facebook Primary (USPD Adjusted) model, calculates the percentage difference between the percentage of Clinton’s and Sanders’ average “likes” nation wide and their average “likes” in a particular county. USPD stands for United States Percentage Difference.

So for the first entry, New York (Manhattan), Clinton held down 24% of the “likes” there as of February 29, or 200% above her average “likes” at that point in The Facebook Primary across the United States. Sanders was at +15%, but since as of February 29 he was averaging 23% of “likes” nationwide, this is just a 62% gain. Clinton 200 USPD – Sanders 62 USPD suggests a significant Clinton victory. The April 18 update now has Clinton at 9% nationwide and 27% in Manhattan for a +18 increase over her national average, keeping her at a 200 USPD score. Sanders now has a raw +17 in New York County for a 68% increase over his nationwide 25% share of the likes. A small increase over his February 29th score, but not enough to flip it into his favor or into the even column, especially since African Americans make up 18% of Manhattan and have consistently voted for Clinton as a block by 30% or more. As Sanders’ share of the “likes” gets up into the 50% or 60% range in some cities, counties, and zip-codes, a strict comparison with Clinton’s USPD is less helpful since her starting point is 9% rather than 25%.

As can be seen, and as with Manhattan, there has been relatively little movement in any of the suburbs or Upstate counties. Most of what little movement there has been is probably explainable by the shift up in nationwide scores for Clinton and Sanders by +1 and +2 respectively. I have only slightly changed my call for very few of them accordingly. Sanders, however, appears to have gained significant ground in the other four boroughs, particularly in Kings (Brooklyn). I have moved Richmond (Staten Island) and Brooklyn into Edge Clinton range. This means that I think a small win for Clinton is likely (five points or less), but an upset by Sanders is also possible, as is a more decisive win by Clinton.

In previous races, I have found that where there are fewer than 2,500 votes in a county, especially less than 1,000, the model is somewhat less accurate.

Key:

C = Clinton
S = Sanders
E = Even
EC = Even, Edge Clinton
ES = Even, Edge Sanders

(The bolded EC, ES, or E’s in the “Call” column are where I have downgraded Sanders’ chances somewhat because of a percentage of African Americans over 10 in a particular county. The italicized EC’s and the like are where I have downgraded Clinton or Sanders chances after the April 18th update. That involves just a very few counties already likely to be somewhat close.)

B = Black
A = Asian
L = Latino
W = White
I = Indigenous

vt = states touching Vermont
~vt = states near Vermont

Adapted from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_locations_by_per_capita_income

Econ

Rank/

Call

County Per capita
income
FB Prmry

2/29–4/18

C/S C/S

Registered Dems ~Total Votes 2008 Racialized

B/A/L/W/I

1 C New York County

(Manhattan)

$111,386 16/15 18/17 710068 286000 18/13/26/47/1
2 C Westchester $73,159 9/8 10/7 290416 105000 16/6/24/55/1
3 C Nassau $41,387 3/0 3/0 383709 108000 13/9/16/62/1
4 E Putnam $37,915 0/1 -1/-1 19232 5500 3/2/13/81
5 EC Suffolk

(Long Island)

$35,755 1/0 1/0 325059 87000 8/4/18/69/1
6 C Rockland $34,304 3/2 3/2 90793 30000 13/7/17/63/1
7 S Saratoga ~vt $32,186 -1/8 -1/7 42037 13000 2/2/3/91
8 S Columbia vt $31,844 0/13 0/12 14278 5300 5/2/5/87
9 ES Dutchess vt $31,642 0/8 0/8 64458 20500 11/4/12/73/1
New York State $30,948 6/9 6/9 19795791 18/9/19/57/1
10 ES Albany $30,863 4/17 3/16 99353 38000 14/6/6/74
11 EC Richmond

(Staten Island)

$30,843 1/-5 2/-1 127575 30000 12/8/16/63/1
12 S Hamilton $29,965 -2/0 -2/0 988 350 1/1/1/96
13 S Ulster ~vt $28,954 -1/20 -1/19 43589 15500 7/2/10/80
14 S Ontario $28,950 -1/6 -1/6 20272 7200 3/1/4/90
15 C Orange $28,944 -1/0 0/0 82092 23000 12/3/19/66/1
16 S Warren ~vt $27,744 -2/12 -3/10 11256 3500 1/1/2/94
17 E Schenectady $27,500 1/9 1/8 38183 12000 11/5/7/75
18 S Rensselaer vt $27,457 0/11 0/11 30605 9400 7/3/5/84
United States $27,334 0/0 321418820 13/5/17/62/1
19 ES Onondaga $27,037 2/10 2/9 112045 38000 12/4/5/78/1
20 EC Monroe $26,999 2/11 2/11 190297 64000 16/4/8/72
21 EC Erie $26,378 2/9 1/8 298511 104,00 14/3/5/76/1
22 S Tompkins $25,737 5/35 4/35 29517 12200 4/10/5/78
23 C Queens $25,553 15/7 14/11 722740 205000 20/26/28/26/1
24 S Schoharie $25,105 -3/2 -4/3 5342 1600 2/1/3/94
25 S Tioga $24,596 -3/1 -4/1 14389 3000 1/1/2/96
26 S Essex vt $24,390 -4/22 -4/20 7035 2200 3/1/3/92
27 ES Genesee $24,323 -3/-4 -4/-6 9563 2800 3/1/2/91/1
28 S Broome $24,314 0/9 -1/9 46281 16000 6/4/4/84
29 S Madison $24,311 -1/6 -2/5 12110 4000 2/1/2/93/1
30 ES Niagara $24,224 -2/0 -2/-1 53532 19000 7/1/3/86/1
31 ES Wayne $24,092 -3/-3 -3/-3 14068 3300 3/1/4/90
32 EC Kings

(Brooklyn)

$23,605 13/13 13/21 945648 257000 35/12/20/36/1
33 S Greene $23,461 -3/0 -3/0 7647 2300 7/1/6/86
34 ES Oneida $23,458 -2/0 -2/-1 47598 14500 7/4/5/83
35 E Chemung $23,457 -2/-1 -2/-2 16872 6000 7/1/3/87
36 ES Sullivan $23,422 -1/4 -2/4 20181 5000 10/2/15/73
37 S Steuben $23,279 -3/-3 -4/-4 15277 4500 2/2/2/94
38 S Yates $23,255 -1/1 -2/3 3429 1400 1/0/2/95
39 S Fulton $23,147 -4/-4 -4/-4 8091 2400 2/1/3/93
40 S Cayuga $22,959 -2/3 -2/2 16086 6000 4/1/3/90
41 S Delaware $22,928 -4/6 -4/4 7930 2700 2/1/4/92
42 S Livingston $22,923 -3/6 -3/6 10788 3800 3/1/3/90
43 S Otsego $22,902 -2/14 -2/14 11419 4000 2/1/4/92
44 S Clinton vt $22,660 -2/27 -3/25 18232 4700 5/1/3/90
45 E Montgomery $22,347 -2/-3 -2/-2 9897 3200 3/1/13/83
46 S Washington vt $22,347 -3/9 -4/7 9323 2900 3/1/3/93
47 S Schuyler $22,123 -3/4 -4/3 3501 1200 1/0/2/95
48 S Cortland $22,078 -2/9 -2/7 9640 3400 2/1/3/93
49 S Chenango $22,036 -4/0 -4/-1 13043 2600 1/0/2/95
50 ES Herkimer $21,908 -3/-2 -3/-3 10848 63100 1/1/2/95
51 S Jefferson $21,823 -3/-1 -4/-2 17853 5000 7/2/7/82/1
52 S Seneca $21,818 -2/6 -2/5 6402 2500 5/1/3/90
53 S Oswego $21,604 -3/3 -3/2 18796 5800 1/1/2/94/1
54 S Chautauqua $21,033 -2/3 -3/2 27999 9400 3/1/7/88/1
55 S Lewis $20,970 -4/-3 -5/-3 4490 1175 1/0/2/96
56 S Cattaraugus $20,824 -4/-3 -4/-3 16488 5000 2/1/2/91/3
57 C Orleans $20,812 1/-7 2/-7 5848 1600 7/1/5/86
58 ES Wyoming $20,605 -3/-8 -5/-8 5803 1500 6/1/3/90
59 S St. Lawrence ~vt $20,143 -1/16 -2/14 23027 7000 3/1/2/91/1
60 S Allegany $20,058 -4/0 -5/-1 6270 2100 1/1/2/95
61 S Franklin ~vt $19,807 -3/20 -4/20 10434 3200 6/1/3/82/8
62 C Bronx $17,575 16/3 18/10 565128 157000 *44/4/55/10/3

*The percentages here add up to 116%. This is as they are found at http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/map/INC110213/36005

NY Voter Data
http://www.elections.ny.gov/EnrollmentCounty.html

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