New York Exit Poll Fun Time

11:35: Final update for me tonight. Doesn’t look like anymore delegates will change hands. Clinton +31. Worse than I expected possible in terms of percentage points (15.2% with 94% reporting); almost the worst I expected in terms of delegate loss. Looking at the calendar going forward, I don’t see how Sanders can make it up absent something completely unexpected over the next two weeks in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, and Indiana.

It was good run, Bernie Sanders. Millions upon millions of us agree with you that the United States is morally bankrupt economically and that Henry Kissinger is a war criminal, not someone to cherish. Millions more, unfortunately want these jokers running things:
Trump Clinton
The revolution will not be voted into office.

11:05: According to the final exit polling, white people and 25-39-year-olds voted for Clinton at a far far higher rate than expected. Clinton almost won both of those demographics. She tied the 30-39 year old demographic 50-50, and Sanders had just a 10 point advantage with 25-29-year-olds. Sanders won with white people in NY just 51-49.

NY Age Splits

NY Age Splits per exit polling at CNN

Here are Illinois’ age splits, by contrast (where Sanders and Clinton split delegates and the non-white share of the vote and how much Clinton won it by was virtually equal, slight edge to Illinois with 42% non-white voters versus 41% in New York):

Illinois Age Splits 2

10:30: My worst case likely scenario was Clinton winning by 35 delegates. According to the Green Papers, she’s up 33 delegates right now. When Nassau County starts coming in, that should stretch to 35. However, Nate Cohn projects the final spread to be 13% at this point (seems likely, could, at very best, go just under 10% in my view). Likely, then, Sanders would lose by about 25-28 delegates, which effectively ends any realistic chance to win the most pledged delegates. Very best scenario, he closes to under 10% and loses just 12-15 delegates. Highly unlikely. Absent a miracle next Tuesday, Clinton is your Democratic nominee.

10:08: Clinton is winning in New York City 63.5% – 36.5% with about 85% reporting. My projection was 53-47 for Clinton. The exit polls initially said 62-38. This is where I was way off, clearly.

9:30: I’ll try to write an update here every half hour. Initial results Upstate are as good or better than I expected, even in Erie (Buffalo). Initial results in New York City are mixed from very good for my projection on Staten Island to where I expected things in Manhattan to almost as good as I hoped in Brooklyn. It’s a bit worse than I hoped so far in Queens and much worse in The Bronx. These are early numbers and could change. I do think a 0-5 point Clinton win is likely at this point, closer to the 5 point range. Still possible Sanders could eek it out.

8:58: My initial instinct on whether African American share of the vote has gone up in any races other than South Carolina was wrong. In about half the states for which we have exit polls (10/21), the African American share of the vote has increased. 6 of these states were in the South (MS, SC, TN, FL, AL, AR) and we all know how those states turned out. Outside the South, black voters share increased in Ohio from 17% to 20%. Sanders did quite badly there, of course. But two of his better states with African Americans so far have been Oklahoma (where the vote share jumped from 7% to 15% for African Americans) and Missouri where it increased slightly. Wisconsin’s African American share of the vote went from 8% to 10%.

8:55: Nervous time. Polls close in 5 minutes.

6:35: more via @bnyaosi. 74-26 African American vote currently for Clinton. Math in my head says if these numbers all say the same, Bernie loses double digits absent gains elsewhere (21% African American vote going 74-26 for Clinton; 18-29 years olds at 16% going for Sanders 69-31). Young voters, at least where I’ve paid attention, vote later. Upstate numbers still coming in; so I expect all of these numbers to end up more favorable to Sanders. In fact, the 69-31 number for 18-29-year-olds in NYC is not bad considering those that are in Manhattan and that these are slightly better numbers than his overall percentage with non-white millennials overall.

6:54: just before I stepped out, @bnyaosi on twitter brought this article to my attention. 57-43 for Clinton with Latina and Latino voters. Matches my 56-44 forecast almost precisely. Voters under 30 going for Sanders only 69-31. If that number doesn’t rise, he’ll need to do better somewhere else.

6:54: I’m going through African American share of vote 2008 versus 2016 for each state now, but have to step out for a bit. So far. SC increased by 6%, GA stayed the same. IL and MI dropped. OH increased by 3% from 17% to 20%. More in a 1/2 hour or so.

6:43: Clinton only winning 52-47 with who inspires you in this election. I expect the final outcome of that number to be close to final results. Once Upstate is included, I expect Sanders to be over 50% almost certainly (unless my entire analysis of Upstate is wrong).

6:42: forgot to add that 64% think Wall Street is bad for the U.S. economy. That is a very very good number for Sanders.

6:31 Eastern: My analysis so far. The 16% 18-29yo voting block so far is better than I expected. It was 16% in the early Wisconsin exit polling and rose to 19% as students tend to vote later.

31% or 34% identifying as “very liberal” is good news for Sanders, that’s better than in Illinois, where Clinton squeaked out a victory.

These exit polls include very few upstate voters as the polls there didn’t open until noon. The numbers will only look better for Sanders as the evening goes on.

538 and Nate Cohn (Upshot NYT’s) are very excited about the 21% African American share of the exit polls so far. I actually think that 6% increase from 2008 would be glorious news for Sanders. African American voting share, so far as I know, has not gone up in any state except South Carolina (I need to check), and it wasn’t by that much. I think if 40% more African Americans are turning out, it’s because they’ve decided they like Sanders and are basically newish voters. The better explanation is the Upstate phenomenon. As Upstate figures are included in the polling, I think that number will drop to 14% or 15%.

48% want to continue Obama’s policies. This is less than Michigan’s final number or Wisconsin’s number in the 5pm eastern exits.

The honest and trustworthy numbers are again very favorable to Sanders. More to follow.

INITIAL POST (minus countdown clock):
I’ll add a few comments over the course of the evening and attempt to respond to any comments/questions in a timely manner.

I expect the first exit poll data on Twitter at around 5:15pm eastern, but will have guests at that time.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s