Quick Predicts for April 26 Democratic Primaries

At this point, I think it’s a very real possibility that election fraud has seriously depressed Bernie Sanders’ results in a wide variety of states including New York last week. I will presenting the best non-conspiratorial case and the best election fraud case I can present in a post later today or tomorrow morning.

Bottom Line: If exit polling data were anything like accurate on the Democratic side (as it basically is on the GOP side), Sanders would be down only about 120 delegates rather than 235, as he is currently. It’s a very massive difference.

So the following predictions are made with a huge asterisk. They are what I think the results would likely be, based on my modeling, without tampering. I’ve engaged my model less rigorously because busy-ness, the likelihood the race is essentially over, and tampering possibilities that seem real. Another way to put it: this is what I expect the exit polls to look like in each state when polls close.

Rhode Island: Sanders +8.9
Pennsylvania: Sanders +4.4
Connecticut: Clinton +0.2
Delaware: Clinton +5.5
Maryland: Clinton +25.8

The net delegate count for this, if accurate, would be a gain of 10-12 delegates for Clinton. Being down about 130 delegates (if the exit polling were correct), would mean a very competitive race going into the last 8 weeks or so of the contest.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s