California Prediction: Sanders +6.5

My prediction for California: Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton +6.5%, +31 Delegates

Range: Sanders +4 – Sanders +12

Outer Range: Clinton +5 – Sanders +16

Caveat: I stopped doing these things really seriously after New York when I became convinced election fraud was a very real possibility. Lots of reports suggest funny business in California already. No Party Preference (NPP) people not receiving ballots, multiple reports of instructions to poll workers to force provisional ballots on NPP voters, and many jurisdictions with provably hackable machines. The above projections assume very little election fraud; a 5-15 point Clinton “win” is not out of the question.

Turnout: ~1.6M Democrats will have voted (not including NPP) in early balloting with around a 55-45 Clinton advantage (it’s 56-44 going into the final two days of early ballot turn ins; historically, per Nate Cohn, even later early voters in California skew younger). I project an additional 3.5 to 4.25M Democratic and NPP ballots (including early NPP ballots) will eventually be counted.  If 3.8M (for Total ~5.4M voters), Sanders would need to win election day ballots about 58% – 42% to reach a 6.5% win.

By Congressional District:

CALIFORNIA

HC BS Del
CD1 2 4 6
CD2 3 5 8
CD3 3 3 6
CD4 3 3 6
CD5 3 4 7
CD6 3 3 6
CD7 2 4 6
CD8 2 3 5
CD9 3 3 6
CD10 2 3 5
CD11 4 3 7
CD12 5 4 9
CD13 4 4 8
CD14 3 4 7
CD15 4 3 7
CD16 2 3 5
CD17 3 3 6
CD18 5 3 8
CD19 3 3 6
CD20 2 4 6
CD21 2 2 4
CD22 2 3 5
CD23 2 3 5
CD24 2 4 6
CD25 2 3 5
CD26 2 4 6
CD27 3 3 6
CD28 3 4 7
CD29 2 3 5
CD30 4 3 7
CD31 2 3 5
CD32 2 4 6
CD33 3 4 7
CD34 2 3 5
CD35 2 3 5
CD36 3 2 5
CD37 4 3 7
CD38 3 3 6
CD39 3 3 6
CD40 1 4 5
CD41 2 3 5
CD42 3 2 5
CD43 4 2 6
CD44 2 4 6
CD45 3 3 6
CD46 2 3 5
CD47 3 3 6
CD48 3 3 6
CD49 3 3 6
CD50 2 3 5
CD51 3 2 5
CD52 4 2 6
CD53 4 3 7
PLEO 25 28 53
At-Large 49 56 105
Total
Delegates
222 253 475

 

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